Welcome To: The Market Toolbox Intelligence Report

March 28, 2009

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Hi Toolbox Fans,

 

Wow what a rally we have.

 

The big question is now… Was this the best selling opportunity yet, or is this the beginning of a major recovery?

 

More importantly… 

 

Where are we headed now?

 

We will look at that Sunday Night at 8pm Eastern daylight time on the Market Toolbox LIVE! Be sure to be there.

 

ALSO: In case you didn’t know…

 

We show some very interesting videos before the show starting at 6pm eastern.

 

For now let’s take a look at the current market and see what we can find out…

 

Here is a chart showing the number of stocks trading above their own moving averages.

 

As you can see there are over 80% of stocks trading above their own 20 day moving average. This is a sure sign that the market is overbought in the short-term.

 

We also know that markets can stay overbought or oversold far longer than anyone thinks they can, so it’s best to “wait for confirmation” before jumping into a trade.

 

Here is a look at the SPY (S&P Tracking ETF)

 

The Index broke above the 5-20 & 50 day moving averages. That actually surprised me a little. I thought it would get turned back at the 50 day.

 

This was one strong rally. But as you can see the fast and slow stochastic are starting to roll over so it may be time to look for another leg down to possibly test the recent lows.

 

With a fast stochastic reading 92.88 and a slow stochastic showing 93.27 we can see the faster start to roll over.

 

For a real confirmation… we’ll look at the weekly chart.

 

On the weekly chart we see that the market is not yet overbought. So we may have room to the upside still.

 

This is what we call a “who knows market”. It could come down… it could continue higher.

 

A really strong signal would be when the daily and weekly charts are in line and that would be a great time to be more aggressive with your trading.

 

In markets like this, we recommend caution.

 

That does not mean that you should not be trading.. but it does mean smaller positions with more conservative stops.

 

So…

 

The NASDAQ actually went positive for the year… WOW!

 

Let’s take a look at other markets for the year…

 

Looks like Silver has been the commodity of choice in 2009.

 

The GDX, Amex mining index is up about 10% and even Gold is up for the year. KOL (Coal) is down slightly, DBC (Commodity Basket) is down about 2.5%, XME (Mining SPDR)is down about 3% and USO (Oil) is down a little more than 7%.

 

( Side Note)… Gasoline prices are up for ten days in a row and now average more than $2.00 per gallon across the USA.

 

A Peek Around The Globe…

 

Here is how the other world markets are doing so far in 2009.

 

So, How have we been doing?

 

Here is a look at the Research Lab stats for March.

Bill has hand-picked 7 trades in March and the stats on the first six are above…

 

There is one trade still open and it has hit the first two targets and should be moved to break-even status with the stop-loss.

 

The overall stats since we started the Platinum Trades in the Research Lab are…

Typically target one is 2-3%. Target 2 is 5-7% and target 3 is 7-9%. So as you can see.. Bill Rocks!

 

That’s it for this week folks…

 

Be sure and come to the show Sunday Night and we’ll see what Jeffrey thinks we have to look forward to.

 

Until Next Time...

 

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