The Market So Far In 2009... Not What You Might Expect

Published: Sun, 01/18/09


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Welcome To: The Market Toolbox Intelligence Report

January 18, 2009

Download The Desktop Financial Portal <-- FREE!

IN THIS ISSUE

  • NO SHOW TONIGHT... The Show Will Be Monday Night!
  • A Look at the market so far this year
  • Time for a new administration
  • What should we expect from the market this week?

Dear Toolbox Readers,

This week I want to look at where the big moves have been so far in 2009, but first we have a little housekeeping to do.

For starters, there will be no show this Sunday Night as the trading week won't start until Tuesday, so we'll be doing the show Monday Night at 8pm Eastern Time.

Also, I want to mention that Research Lab memberships have been moving pretty fast and I am not sure how long membership will still be open.

Now let's take a look at the market so far in 2009.

In the world of currencies, the US Dollar has been holding up pretty well.

We will have to wait and see if the inflation or deflation scenario dominates as we move forward. There is a great case to be made either way.

vs the US Dollar Symbol YTD % Chg.
British Pound Sterling FXB
1.17%
Japanese Yen FXY
-0.18%
Mexican Peso FXM
-1.83%
Canadian Dollar FXC
-2.61%
Swedish Krona FXS
-4.21%
Swiss Franc FXF
-4.89%
Euro FXE
-4.92%
Australian Dollar FXA
-5.65%

As we look around the globe for foreign market ETFs so far we'll see just two countries up and the rest look like 2008 all over again.

Country Symbol YTD % Chg.
Israel ISL
4.74%
Brazil EWZ
1.11%
Malaysia EWM
-1.10%
Canada EWC
-2.81%
Hong Kong EWH
-3.86%
South Korea EWY
-4.22%
Austria EWO
-4.45%
Belgium EWK
-5.04%
Netherlands EWN
-5.56%
United States SPY
-5.74%
Singapore EWS
-6.81%
India IFN
-7.21%
United Kingdom EWU
-7.51%
Japan EWJ
-8.04%
Taiwan EWT
-8.04%
Switzerland EWL
-8.63%
Mexico EWW
-9.11%
Italy EWI
-9.40%
Australia EWA
-10.28%
China FXI
-10.79%
South Africa EZA
-11.13%
Spain EWP
-11.60%
France EWQ
-11.66%
Sweden EWD
-12.60%
Germany EWG
-15.97%

I looked through the sectors for signs of life and all I could find was a small gains in BioTech (BBH or PBE) , Oil Equipment (XES) and Retail (XRT).

Literally every other sector is down and its looking really bad for financial's, regional banks and Insurance with losses ranging from 10-30% already in 2009.

Would you like to hear the good news?

If you had been playing "short" by taking "long" positions in the inverse ETFs you could have banked some serious gains already this year.

Here is just a sample of what you're missing with the leveraged ETFs.

Leveraged ETFs
YTD % Chg.
Financials 3x Short
75.38%
Financials 2x Short
50.37%
China 2x Short
20.08%
Oil 2x Short
19.65%
Real Estate 2x Short
17.22%
Russell 2000 3x Short
15.64%
Russell 1000 3x Short
15.05%
Emerging Mkts 2x Short
11.17%
SP500 2x Short
11.00%
DOW 2X Short
10.85%
Russell 2000 2x Short
10.47%
Oil 2x Long
9.80%
Gold 2x Short
8.12%
Energy 3x Short
3.03%
Health Care 2x Short
2.95%
Oil+Gas 2x Short
1.52%
Semiconductor 2x Short
0.92%
QQQQ 2x Short
0.66%
QQQQ 2x Long
-2.38%
Health Care 2x Long
-3.02%
Oil+Gas 2x Long
-5.64%
Emerging Mkts 2x Long
-6.89%
Semiconductor 2x Long
-7.18%
Gold 2x Long
-8.62%
Energy 3x Long
-9.77%
SP500 2x Long
-11.12%
DOW 2x Long
-11.31%
Russell 2000 2x Long
-11.75%
Russell 1000 3x Long
-15.64%
Russell 2000 3x Long
-17.95%
Financials 2x Long
-36.32%
Financials 3x Long
-49.71%

The leveraged ETFs are tricky little trading vehicles... But they sure do make some impressive moves. The are also chock full of controversy.

In fact we are going to go in-depth into exactly what are the problems and opportunities with leveraged ETFs on our show The Market Toolbox LIVE on Monday Night at 8pm Eastern Time.

If leverage is not your cup of tea you could be up about 5% or more using regular "short" ETFs like SH or DOG, but the PSQ would have only given you less than a 2% gain so far in 2009.

Here is what you need to understand.

You CAN make money in a down market. Position Trading or Swing Trading is a skill that you CAN learn and it's not really that hard.

If you would like to learn how to properly enter and exit positions or swing trades I urge you to become a member of the Swing Trading Club and take control of your portfolio.

The Swing Trading Club has some great training videos, awesome trade calculators to help you control your risk and LIVE interaction each day with like minded traders.

2009 looks like it could be an encore performance from 2008 and you do NOT want to take that kind of damage again this year.

If you are confident in your trading abilities and would like access to our "in-house" scans and ETF Dashboard, Become a member of the Research Lab.

If you have not done so already...

Download the Desktop Toolbox Today &

Become A Member of The Research Lab

Until Next Time...

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Best Wishes and Good Investing,
Bill McKinley & Doug Newberry
The Investing Systems Network


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